High-flying Cardinals pay visit to struggling Mountaineers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 24th-ranked Louisville Cardinals take aim at their sixth straight win today, as they pay a visit to the West Virginia Mountaineers in Big East Conference action.

Louisville is coming off an 80-59 rout of visiting Connecticut on Monday night, improving coach Rick Pitino's club to 19-5 on the year and 7-4 in conference play. The Cardinals have clearly had an impressive run thus far, but they have proven to be somewhat mortal on the road (4-3). They have however, won their last two in enemy territory -- at Pitt and at Seton Hall.

West Virginia streaked out to a 15-5 start, but losses in four of its last five has the team sitting at 16-9 overall, 6-6 in conference, and has the Mountaineer faithful wondering just how good the team really is this year. Coach Bob Huggins' club is coming off a 55-51 loss to visiting Notre Dame, the setback being just the third in 13 home games for WVU to this point in the campaign.

Louisville owns an 8-4 lead in the all-time series with West Virginia, but the Mountaineers won the most recent meeting, 72-70, last March in Morgantown.

Louisville is outscoring its opponents by roughly 10 ppg this season, and the team is permitting the opposition an average field goal percentage of only .369 (best in the Big East) while forcing more than 16 turnovers per outing. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are guilty of 15 giveaways per game, and while they average nearly 72 ppg, they are hitting their three-point field goals just 32.2 percent of the time. UofL has four double-digit scorers in the form of Kyle Kuric (13.0 ppg), Russ Smith (12.1 ppg), Chris Smith (10.4 ppg) and Gorgui Dieng (10.4 ppg) -- a fifth player, Chane Behanan (11.1 ppg), joins the ranks when referring to Big East games only. Chris Smith was high man for the Cards in the recent win over UConn, netting 16 points on the strength of four three-pointers, the team draining 11 treys on the night. Dieng added 15 points, Kuric chipped in with 10, and Behanan grabbed 12 of the team's 28 rebounds. The Huskies were held to 35.1 percent field goal efficiency, and only three of their 14 long-range attempts found the bottom of the net.

Kevin Jones had his string of consecutive games in which he scored at least 20 points end at nine, as he tallied 14 points on 6-of-15 shooting in West Virginia's recent loss to Notre Dame. Jones pulled down 12 rebounds in logging his 16th double-double of the season for the Mountaineers, who shot just 41.4 percent from the floor and converted only 2-of-16 three-point tries (.125) against the Fighting Irish. Jabarie Hinds scored 17 points and Deniz Kilicli added 16 in defeat, as both team's took exceptional care of the basketball, combining for a mere eight turnovers -- WVU having only three. Through 25 games, the Mountaineers are putting up 73.6 ppg on 45.4 percent shooting from the floor, which includes a disappointing 31.7 percent showing from beyond the arc. They have done well in guarding against the three-pointer though, yielding just a 31.0 percent success rate to the opposition, and they own a +6.0 rebounding margin (second-best in the conference). Jones (20.6 ppg, 11.2 rpg) is a virtual shoe-in to be named Big East Player of the Year as he leads the league in both scoring and rebounding, while ranking in the top-10 in field goal percentage (.528) and minutes played (38.2). Bryant (16.9 ppg) and Kilicli (11.3 ppg) are both averaging double figures in the scoring column as well for West Virginia.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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